"Probabilistic Design of Flexible and Rigid Pavements Using AASHTO Equations", Adnan A. Basma and A. Al-Balbissi, Transportation Research Record, Washington D.C., TRR 1227, 1989, pp 34-43.


This paper applies statistical and probabilistic methods to design of pavements using the existing AASHTO equations. The major purpose for applying such methods was to assess the variation of the pavement geometry as a function of the variabilities of design factors. A linear first order approximation was applied on the AASHTO pavement design equation, the purpose of which was to determine the effect of the variation of traffic and soil support value on the variation of structural number for flexible pavement and the effect of the variation of traffic and concrete flexural strength on the variation of slab thickness for rigid pavements. The mean and variance equations for the pavement geometry were derived by using Taylor's Series expansion about the mean. Nomographic solutions of these equations are provided which would prove helpful in practical applications. The final design thickness of the pavement for a specific service life and design parameters variability is obtained by combining the nomographic solutions with the least cost concept, thereby satisfying economy, performance and statistical design requirements. Examples to illustrate the use of this technique in the design of both flexible and rigid pavements are presented.

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